IPCC AR3 AG III: Chancen erneuerbarer Energien, 2011

Mit dem Titel "Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation" stellt der Weltklimarat eine Studie zu den Chancen der Erneuerbaren Energien vor. In der offiziellen Presseerklärung zu dem am 9. Mai 2011 verabschiedeten Bericht heißt es:

"Experts Underline Significant Future Role in Cutting Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Powering Sustainable Development. Over 160 Scenarios on the Potential of six Renewable Energy Technologies Reviewed by Global Team of Technological Experts and Scientists"


Zusammenfassung

"Close to 80 percent of the world’s energy supply could be met by renewables by mid-century if backed by the right enabling public policies a new report shows. The findings, from over 120 researchers working with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), also indicate that the rising penetration of renewable energies could lead to cumulative greenhouse gas savings equivalent to 220 to 560 Gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (GtC02eq) between 2010 and 2050. The upper end of the scenarios assessed, representing a cut of around a third in greenhouse gas emissions from business-as-usual projections, could assist in keeping concentrations of greenhouse gases at 450 parts per million. This could contribute towards a goal of holding the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius – an aim recognized in the United Nations Climate Convention's Cancun Agreements. ..."

Gliederung

Der Bericht ist in folgende Kapitel untergliedert:

• Technical Summary
• Chapter 1: Renewable Energy and Climate Change
• Chapter 2: "Bioenergy, including energy crops; forest, agricultural and livestock residues and so called second generation biofuels"
• Chapter 3: "Direct solar energy including photovoltaics and concentrating solar power"
• Chapter 4: "Geothermal energy, based on heat extraction from the Earth’s interior"
• Chapter 5: "Hydropower, including run-of-river, in-stream or dam projects with reservoirs"
• Chapter 6: "Ocean energy, ranging from barrages to ocean currents and ones which harness temperature differences in the marine realm"
• Chapter 7: "Wind energy, including on- and offshore systems"
• Chapter 8: Integration of Renewable Energy into Present and Future Energy Systems
• Chapter 9: Renewable Energy in the Context of Sustainable Development
• Chapter 10: Mitigation Potential and Costs
• Chapter 11: Policy, Financing and Implementation
• Annexes

Szenarien

"(...) the overall conclusions are that renewables will take an increasing slice of the energy market.
The most optimistic of the four, in-depth scenarios projects renewable energy accounting for as much as 77 percent of the world’s energy demand by 2050, amounting to about 314 of 407 Exajoules per year. As a comparison, 314 Exajoules is over three times the annual energy supply in the United States in 2005 (...)
Each of the scenarios is underpinned by a range of variables such as changes in energy efficiency, population growth and per capita consumption. These lead to varying levels of total primary energy supply in 2050, with the lowest of the four scenarios seeing renewable energy accounting for a share of 15 percent in 2050, based on a total primary energy supply of 749 Exajoules.
While the report concludes that the proportion of renewable energy will likely increase even without enabling policies, past experience has shown that the largest increases come with concerted policy efforts. Though in some cases renewable energy technologies are already economically competitive, the production costs are currently often higher than market energy prices. However, if environmental impacts such as emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases were monetized and included in energy prices, more renewable energy technologies may become economically attractive. For most of them, costs have declined over the last decades and the authors expect significant technical advancements and further cost reductions in the future, resulting in a greater potential for climate change mitigation. Public policies that recognize and reflect the wider economic, social and environmental benefits of renewable energies, including their potential to cut air pollution and improve public health, will be key for meeting the highest renewables deployment scenarios. Increasing the share of renewables requires additional short-term and long-term integration efforts. Studies clearly show that combining different variable renewable sources, and resources from larger geographical areas, will be beneficial in smoothing the variability and decreasing overall uncertainty for the power system. There is a need for advanced technologies to optimize the infrastructure capacity for renewables. Additionally, there is a need for balancing supply and demand, like advanced demand and supply forecasting and plant scheduling. (...)"


Dokumente
"Summary for Policymakers" (Kurzfassung)
"Mitigation of Climate Change" (Langfassung)
Offizielle Presseerklärung

Interne Links

• IPCC - Weltklimarat
• IPCC: 3. Sachstandsbericht, 2001
• IPCC AR4 - AG I-III: Klimaänderung 2007
• IPCC AR4 - AG I: Wissenschaftliche Grundlagen, 2007
• IPCC AR4 - AG II: Auswirkungen, Anpassung, Verwundbarkeiten, 2007
• IPCC AR4 - AG II: Kenntnisstand über künftige geografische Auswirkungen des Klimawandels, 2007
• IPCC AR4 - AG II: Kenntnisstand über künftige systemische Auswirkungen des Klimawandels, 2007
• UN - Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)
• UN - Klimarahmenkonvention (UNFCCC)
• UN - Umweltprogramm (UNEP)

Externe Links
Homepage des Weltklimarates
Homepage der Arbeitsgruppe IPCC ARIII - AR3